From Barriers to Enablers: A Multi-Evidence Strategic Framework for Green Hydrogen Adoption in Conflict-Affected Developing Economies: The Case of Palestine

Green hydrogen—hydrogen produced from renewable electricity—is central to global decarbonization strategies. However, despite their fragile governance, damaged infrastructure, water scarcity, and limited investment security, conflict-affected developing economies remain largely absent from hydrogen research. This study addresses that gap by developing and validating a multi-evidence strategic framework for green-hydrogen (GH2) adoption in fragile institutional environments, using Palestine as a challenging test case. Methodologically speaking, the framework integrates four evidence streams—barrier prioritization by 45 Palestinian experts using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); structural modeling of barrier–adoption–sustainability relationships using partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM); strategic-pathway ranking using the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS); and an original Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) Contribution Index—externally validated by an independent panel of 120 energy experts across 18 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. Three findings stand out. Firstly, expert perception and structural evidence diverge: technical barriers receive the highest expert weight (56.2%) yet show the weakest structural effect on adoption (β = −0.230), whereas social barriers, weighted lowest by experts (4.8%), rank second in predictive power (β = −0.310). Secondly, Small-Scale Community Production is the most robust deployment pathway, ranked first under every weighting scenario tested. Thirdly, government policy quality acts as a governance multiplier, raising the sustainability returns of adoption by 20.2%, with benefits concentrated in SDGs 7, 13, 8, and 9. Practically speaking, the framework yields seven strategic goals and a phased 2026–2040 roadmap for fragile developing economies.