Friend or Foe? Analysing Neutral States' Exports to the Russian Federation Using Synthetic Difference‐In‐Differences

ABSTRACT

The study focuses on the analysis of neutral states' exports to the Russian Federation via SDID and their comparison with more diligent enforcers of European sanctions, emphasising thus the changes that took place after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The investigation seeks to identify if the invasion and its subsequent repercussions resulted in significant changes in the commodity structure of trade of the neutral states, indicating their engagement in sanction‐busting behaviour. The research is based on 13 synthetic difference‐in‐difference panel data models for each sampled state using data from the UN Comtrade database. The results highlight an increase in the value of sanctioned commodities exported to Russia in all nine instances, where a significant change occurred solely in Kazakhstan and Türkiye. The findings of the study are consistent with the existing literature, and they reveal several directions for future research.