France's demographic trends up to 2050: What challenges for health and safety at work? A foresight study
Jennifer Clerté, Marc Malenfer, Stéphanie Boini, Laurent Kerangueven, Cécile Désaunay, Natacha Fouquet, Pascal Girardot, Céline Mardon, Emmanuelle Prouet, Julie RochutBackground
The aging of the French population is a highly inertial process, meaning we can already draw the age pyramid of 2050 with a fairly high degree of certainty. According to the French National Institute of Statistics (Insee), the French population is expected to peak at 69.3 million in 2044, before beginning to slow gradually. Focusing on the working population, the level of uncertainty increases, but we know that its decline is likely to occur even earlier, from 2036 onwards. These demographic shifts put the social protection system under pressure, and particularly pension schemes. The main response by public authorities is to postpone the retirement age in order to maintain a sustainable ratio of contributors to beneficiaries. Indeed, since life expectancy is increasing, it would be possible to work longer, while still enjoying a period of retirement. However, several factors complicate the equation, not least the issue of occupational hazards, which play a decisive role in determining workers’ health and ability to remain on the labour market. This is the purpose of this foresight study.
Objective
Even if these demographic trends are unavoidable up to 2050, they can however lead to a range of possible futures. Therefore, as part of its foresight activity, the French research institute for occupational health (INRS) has conducted a study to explore how demographic changes might reshape the world of work by 2050, and the implications on workers’ health and safety.
Methods
This paper summarises the methodological approach adopted in the study and presents the findings achieved on the following questions: what opportunities and threats do these changes represent for occupational risk prevention? What sectoral issues are affected? How can the occupational health professionals involved prepare? More specifically, it describes how structural changes that will undoubtedly impact French society can give rise to different adaptation strategies, which may lead to the emergence or worsening of various occupational risks.
Results
This project has produced two contrasted scenarios, which were then applied to 5 sectors, selected for the specific situations of tension they present. Those Initial results were then submitted to a panel of occupational safety and health (OSH) experts.
Conclusions
This study led to a list of sectoral and transversal courses of action to the prevention stakeholders, that could improve de working conditions and contribute to maintain people at work.