Forecast-Augmented Ensemble Control for Greenhouse Microclimate Regulation

Greenhouse microclimate regulation is challenging due to nonlinear coupling among temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and light intensity, which limits the effectiveness of conventional threshold-based and PID control strategies under time-varying environmental disturbances. This paper presents a forecast-augmented ensemble control framework that combines Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, and Support Vector Machine classifiers with one-hour-ahead weather forecasts for closed-loop greenhouse microclimate regulation. The proposed system was deployed and validated in a working greenhouse cultivating cucumber (cv. ‘Madora F1’) over 28 consecutive days. Sensor measurements and forecast inputs were processed through a unified preprocessing pipeline, while control actions were generated through majority voting and executed on Raspberry Pi 4B edge hardware with a worst-case inference latency below 18 ms. The proposed framework achieved a temperature RMSE of 0.83 °C during field deployment. For reference, RMSE values of 3.21 °C and 1.94 °C were obtained for the threshold-based and PID baseline controllers, respectively, under the adopted disturbance-consistent evaluation protocol. Compliance rates reached 96.4% for temperature, 94.1% for relative humidity, and 97.2% for soil moisture across 40,320 resampled observation intervals (60 s analysis grid) derived from the original 10 s acquisition stream. Integration of short-term weather forecasts enabled anticipatory irrigation management, reducing irrigation pump operation by 18% without compromising soil-moisture compliance and yielding an estimated annual energy saving of 158 kWh per greenhouse zone. Unlike prediction-oriented greenhouse artificial-intelligence studies, the proposed approach implements a deployable forecast-augmented closed-loop control architecture validated under continuous real-world greenhouse operation.