Financing Transition in a Hydrocarbon Economy: The UAE Case

The objective of this paper is to examine the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as a test case of Gulf energy transition finance by analyzing how a hydrocarbon-dependent economy is constructing the financial, regulatory, and institutional architecture required to move from net-zero pledges to climate finance flows. Rather than treating climate finance as a set of isolated instruments, the paper conceptualizes the UAE’s approach as a state-led transition-finance model shaped by Gulf state capitalism, sovereign wealth accumulation, national oil company strategy, financial regulation, and post-COP28 climate diplomacy. Using a qualitative policy and institutional review, the paper maps the UAE’s transition-finance architecture across three interrelated dimensions: institutions and governance, financial instruments, and policy alignment. It examines the role of federal strategies such as Net Zero 2050 and the UAE Energy Strategy 2050, regulatory actors including the Central Bank of the UAE, the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA), Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM), and Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA), and key financial mechanisms including green bonds and sukuk, sustainability-linked finance, sovereign wealth fund investments, national oil company decarbonization strategies, blended-finance platforms, and carbon-market mechanisms. The analysis finds that the UAE has developed a distinctive state-led, finance-centric model for financing the energy transition. This model enables rapid capital mobilization, de-risking of private investment, and strong international positioning, particularly following COP28 and the launch of ALTÉRRA. However, its effectiveness is constrained by unresolved tensions between net-zero ambition and hydrocarbon expansion, fragmented sustainable-finance regulation, limited carbon-pricing signals, uneven disclosure practices, underdeveloped domestic green capital markets, and restricted access to green finance for SMEs. The paper argues that the UAE’s climate-finance architecture is best understood neither as simple green diversification nor as symbolic climate positioning, but as an emerging Gulf model of transition finance: well-capitalized, and institutionally coordinated, yet structurally shaped by the same hydrocarbon rents and state-led governance logics it seeks to transform. By positioning the UAE as a benchmark, the paper contributes to debates on climate finance, state capitalism, and transition governance in hydrocarbon-dependent economies, while identifying the coherence gaps to be addressed for climate finance to support economy-wide decarbonization.