Financial Crisis and Group Identity: Exploring Linked Fate Among U.S. Black and Latino Populations During the Great Recession

Abstract

Can economic crises erode ethno-racial solidarity? This study examines linked fate, the belief that one’s life is intertwined with others, during the 2008 recession. Using 2004–2016 American National Election Studies data, we apply time-series analysis to test the racial utility heuristic among Black and Latino respondents. Linked fate declines after the recession, continuing through 2012, but the effect is statistically significant only for Black respondents. Financial hardship shows no direct association with linked fate, yet group trends vary by income and education. These findings suggest that while linked fate may be resilient to individual economic strain, macroeconomic downturns can selectively weaken group-based political cohesion.