Fertility Patterns and Regional Disparities in Romania: Evidence from Spatial Panel Models

Abstract

Romania, like many other European Union countries, has been facing a persistent decline in fertility, raising significant demographic and socio-economic concerns. Understanding regional disparities is essential for developing effective demographic policies. This paper examines fertility differences across Romanian counties (NUTS 3) between 2013 and 2023, using spatial econometric and panel data approaches. Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) revealed clear regional patterns: the North-East and Central regions (especially Suceava, Botoșani, Bistrița-Năsăud, Harghita, and Mureș) consistently registered high fertility rates, forming high–high clusters, while the South-West and West regions (notably Gorj, Vâlcea, and Hunedoara) exhibited persistently low fertility, forming low–low clusters. The Moran’s I index, calculated for each year, confirmed a significant positive spatial autocorrelation (p < 0.01) throughout the entire period, with a slight decline during 2020-2021, potentially reflecting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The estimated SARAR model with fixed effects confirmed the spatial dependence of fertility across counties. Results indicate that regional macroeconomic wealth (GDP per capita) is not statistically significant, whereas higher female labour force participation positively impacts fertility. Conversely, a high reliance on social assistance, high crude emigration rates, and significant educational burdens depress birth rates, revealing complex socio-economic dynamics. These results indicate that fertility patterns are shaped not only by structural and cultural factors but also by spatial spillovers. The findings highlight the importance of incorporating spatial dependence into demographic research and support the design of targeted, region-specific policies to reduce fertility disparities in Romania.