Feature-Engineered Daytime Hourly Solar Irradiance Forecasting for Smart Urban Energy Systems Across Nine Stations Using Deep Learning and Statistical Models

Accurate solar irradiance forecasting is important for efficient planning of solar energy systems, renewable energy integration, and data-driven energy management in smart cities. This becomes more essential in regions with limited measured data availability and varying climatic conditions, where reliable forecasting can support urban energy planning and smart grid operation. Pakistan faces a scarcity of available solar data and has varying climatic conditions, which makes it ideal for such a study. This study utilizes nine geographically diverse stations to develop a benchmark framework for direct one-step-ahead hourly solar irradiance forecasting. The dataset was subjected to data preprocessing, feature engineering, and multi-model evaluation. A staged approach was adopted for feature selection, starting from a base model comprising three input variables: extraterrestrial radiation, solar zenith angle, and relative humidity. Features were added in an incremental order, which resulted in an optimized four-variable input set through the addition of a lagged clearness index to the base model. The forecasting models evaluated in this study, using these input variables, were ANN, NAR, NARX, LSTM, GRU, SARIMA, and Prophet. Deep learning models outperformed the other considered approaches, with LSTM showing the best overall benchmark performance with an average RMSE of 92.93 W/m2, MAE of 66.56 W/m2, and R-Squared of 0.872. The performance trends were broadly consistent across the evaluated stations, indicating stable behaviour within the adopted dataset and experimental setup. The study shows that a compact and physically interpretable input feature set, used with recurrent deep learning models, provides an effective solution for hourly solar irradiance forecasting, especially in locations with varying climatic conditions. The proposed benchmark can support smart city applications related to distributed solar generation, energy-aware urban planning, and intelligent operation of renewable-rich power systems.