Factors Affecting Future Mobility of South Asian Migrants in Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT

Saudi Arabia hosts numerous South Asian families facing uncertainty under the transient residency regime. This article examines how planned length of stay, willingness to settle permanently, and desire to relocate to a third country (with Canada as the focus) shape the mobility intentions of South Asians in Saudi Arabia. Analysing survey data from 1019 Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi migrants, the multivariate analysis reveals that belonging, religion, and family living arrangements predict these outcomes. Findings show that strong local belonging (OR ≈ 2.7) and living with family significantly predict longer planned stays, signalling a preference for permanence. Notably, being Muslim systematically increases willingness to stay permanently if legal pathways exist (with belonging raising the odds nearly six‐fold), driven by spiritual belonging within the ‘Land of Islam’. Conversely, second‐generation status, strong belonging to Saudi Arabia, and family presence predict onward migration rather than returning to their country of origin, while higher education specifically predicts choosing Canada; these migrants strategically leverage class resources to navigate point‐based Western immigration systems. Thus, family‐based migrants actively navigate temporary regimes, positioning Saudi Arabia as a global migration stepping stone.