External validation of the sICOP score for early mortality in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID ‐19
Mitsuaki Nishikimi, Kei Hayashida, Takashi Tagami, Shinichiro Ohshimo, Nobuaki Shime, Kazuma Yamakawa Abstract
Background and Objectives
The aim of this study was to externally validate the prognostic score for mechanically ventilated patients with novel coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19), the simplified intubated COVID‐19 predictive (sICOP) score.
Methods
This was a retrospective, multicenter, observational study conducted using the database registry of patients with moderate‐to‐severe COVID‐19 at 66 hospitals in Japan. The data of 146 mechanically ventilated COVID‐19 patients were analyzed.
Results
The areas under the curve (AUC) of the sICOP score for predicting the 28‐day mortality and in‐hospital mortality were 0.81 (0.73–0.89) and 0.74 (0.65–0.83), respectively. The AUC of the score was statistically significantly higher than that of the SOFA score for 28‐day mortality and in‐hospital mortality (28‐day mortality; 0.82 [0.73–0.90] vs. 0.58 [0.46–0.70], p < 0.001, in‐hospital mortality; 0.75 [0.66–0.84] vs 0.55 [0.44–0.66], p < 0.001).
Conclusion
We found that the sICOP score was useful for predicting the 28‐day mortality with excellent accuracy in mechanically ventilated COVID‐19 patients in the era prior to the widespread availability of vaccines and effective antivirals. Validation of the score would be needed by using data from recent waves.