Extended hydrological prediction (EHP) sub‐seasonal forecast for water resources planning and management

Abstract

The Extended Hydrologic Prediction (EHP) project is a forecasting system development and deployment project for three major basins of India—Yamuna, Cauvery and Narmada. The forecasts will be produced at four key locations in each basin using a 4‐week horizon. Forecasts are hydrologic naturalized (deregulated) flows. Regulated forecasts will require the addition of an operations model to account for management decisions and interventions. Forecasting streamflow over a multi‐week horizon has a range of benefits to improve water resources planning for flood mitigation via reservoir pre‐positioning, drought planning for shortage allocation, power maximization and many other benefits demonstrated globally. EHP is a challenging project from the research side, where there are limited deployed systems across the world at this horizon, which is a chance for EHP to make a significant contribution to the forecasting community, which will bring benefits to the stakeholders of these basins, and will be a model for future similar forecasting systems in India and around the world.