Exporting Animals or Exporting Value? Public Policy, Trade Resilience and Value Creation in the Romanian Sheep Sector

Background: Public policies are increasingly judged not only by their support for production but by how they shape trade structure, value distribution and resilience to shocks. Romania’s sheep sector has expanded since EU accession, yet whether this has translated into higher-value exports or more resilient trade destinations remains unclear. Methods: Using UN Comtrade, FAOSTAT and Eurostat data for 2003–2024, four dimensions—production base, trade orientation, value structure and geographical concentration—were examined via descriptive indicators, Kendall trend tests, permutation Kruskal–Wallis comparisons across five policy periods, and one-sided sign and Wilcoxon tests, with robustness checks in constant prices. Results: The sheep population grew by 42.8% (2003–2024), but slaughter and meat production did not follow proportionally, and the Slaughter Rate fell from 83.6% to 51.1%. Live Export Value Share exceeded 50% every year (median 92.2%), and live export value exceeded meat export value in all 22 years (median ratio 11.8). Eight of fourteen indicators differed significantly across policy periods, and geographical concentration was confirmed for meat but not live-animal exports. Conclusions: The sector combines an expanding productive base with a persistently live-animal-centric export structure; policy should complement production support with investment in slaughter and processing capacity, quality classification and market diversification, rather than restricting live exports.