Exploring the Future of Forest-Based Cultural Heritage Tourism: A Scenario Planning Approach

Forest-based cultural heritage landscapes associated with traditional potash, tar, resin, and charcoal (PoTaRCh) production constitute valuable socio-ecological systems with considerable potential for sustainable tourism and rural development. However, little is known about how these destinations may evolve under future environmental, social, and governance uncertainties. The objective of this study was to identify the key drivers and critical uncertainties shaping the future development of PoTaRCh-based tourism systems in Europe by 2040 and to develop alternative scenarios to support strategic planning and adaptive governance. The research adopted the Intuitive Logics approach to scenario planning and the Scenario-Based Strategic Planning framework, combining a two-round Delphi study with 42 experts from 15 European countries and qualitative scenario development. Four key drivers were identified: forest ecosystem integrity, destination governance, community participation, and visitor experience and tourism demand. Their interaction resulted in five internally consistent scenarios: Forest Harmony, Guardians’ Forest, Tourist Forest, Forgotten Forest, and Regenerating Forest. The findings demonstrate that the resilience of PoTaRCh-based tourism systems depends on the dynamic interaction between ecological conditions, governance capacity, local stewardship, and tourism demand rather than on any single driver. To facilitate the practical application of the scenarios, the study also proposes a Scenario Monitoring Framework and Scenario Cockpit that translate qualitative scenario narratives into monitoring indicators for early detection of emerging development pathways. The study advances tourism futures research by providing one of the first comprehensive foresight analyses of forest-based cultural heritage tourism systems and offers practical guidance for destination managers and policy-makers seeking to strengthen the long-term sustainability and resilience of heritage landscapes.