Exploring birthplace effects in Italian male football: Local talent yield and structural characteristics across provinces

Research in Italian football presented geospatial variations in successful talent development pathways. However, little is known about how communities’ characteristics are associated with these outcomes. Accordingly, this study aimed to examine the local talent yield in football (the relative rate of players entering senior professional football) for each Italian province and its association with structural characteristics. The birthplace of Italian-born players who have received at least one call-up from a Serie A club during at least one of the six seasons (2018–19, 2019–20, 2020–21, 2021–22, 2022–23, 2023–24) was recorded, and provinces’ population density, socioeconomic status (SES), cultural diversity, and the presence and level of success of professional football (i.e., professional football index) were collected. Univariate and bivariate analyses (i.e., chi-square test-for-independence and Kruskal-Wallis tests) revealed that Northern and Central provinces, as well as those with higher population density, SES, cultural diversity, and professional football index, were significantly associated with higher local talent yields (p from <.001 to .02). Multivariate analysis (i.e., ordinal regression model) highlighted that provinces’ structural characteristics accounted for 23.1% of the variance in the dependent variable (Nagelkerke R2 = .231, p < .001), with higher SES and professional football index which significantly increased the likelihood of scoring higher local talent yields (ORs = 2.53 and 1.89, respectively). Overall, findings confirmed the geographical polarization of Italian football (i.e., North vs. South) and supported theoretical accounts on birth advantages, underlining structural characteristics at the community level associated with different rates of entry into Italian professional football.