Examining Enhancement of Urban Economic Resilience through Urban Rail Transit Openings: Evidence from China

Abstract

Enhancing urban economic resilience is essential for cities exposed to external economic shocks. This study examines whether the opening of urban rail transit (URT) improves urban economic resilience. We use panel data for 262 Chinese prefecture-level cities from 2001 to 2023. We treat the first URT opening as a quasinatural experiment and estimate a multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) model. We conduct robustness checks using multiple approaches. The results indicate that URT openings have a statistically significant positive effect on urban economic resilience. On average, a city’s economic resilience index increases by approximately 0.054 points after URT opens. A mechanism analysis suggests that URT improves economic resilience mainly through industrial agglomeration, labor mobility, and consumer market activity. These channels account for approximately 3.156%, 2.639%, and 1.522% of the total effect, respectively. The effects are larger in medium-sized cities with populations of 1–5 million and in the central and western regions. Artificial intelligence positively moderates the relationship between URT and urban economic resilience. Further analysis shows that cities with larger URT networks and longer URT operating histories experience greater improvements in economic resilience. The spatial DID estimates suggest that the main results are robust to spatial dependence. Urban economic resilience exhibits spatial correlation, and the spillover effect is primarily concentrated among geographically neighboring cities.