Evolution Mechanism of Major and Extraordinary Accidents Based on an Energy Transfer Model: A Case Study

To improve risk prevention and safety management in high-risk industrial systems, this study integrates energy transfer theory and system dynamics to analyze the mechanisms of major and extraordinary accidents. It further investigates the catastrophic explosion of Tianjiayi Chemical Co., Ltd. on 21 March 2019 in Xiangshui, China—a complex-system failure that caused extensive casualties and property damage. By refining the energy transfer model using system dynamics, the accident is analyzed through the lens of a hazardous energy constraint failure. Simulation results demonstrate that the incident arose from the coupled interaction of multi-level risk factors, exhibiting pronounced nonlinear and synergistic characteristics. The collapse of energy containment barriers led to an uncontrolled release of stored chemical energy, which critically escalated the accident. Personnel errors, managerial deficiencies, and material hazards were identified as primary contributors to systemic vulnerability. The findings offer a mechanistic understanding of energy-driven accident evolution and provide actionable insights for enhancing engineering safety management and preventing major accidents in chemical industrial parks.