Event‐Based Detection and Attribution‐Oriented Diagnosis of Compound Hot–Drought Extremes in a Typical Region of Central North China

ABSTRACT

Compound hot–drought events are high‐impact extremes that can amplify agricultural, ecological, and socioeconomic risks, yet their event‐scale detection and attribution‐oriented diagnosis remain limited for inland transitional regions. Here, we use Shanxi Province as a representative case of Central North China and develop a daily event‐based framework to identify warm‐season compound hot–drought events during 1961–2023 by combining the Meteorological Drought Composite Index with concurrent exceedances of daily maximum and minimum temperature thresholds. We further detect long‐term changes and abrupt shifts, identify major event years, verify representative events using disaster‐impact records, and diagnose associated circulation pathways through causal effect network analysis. The results show that both the annual number of compound hot–drought event days and the annual compound‐event percentage increased significantly during 1961–2023, with an abrupt shift around 1996–1997. Most top‐ranked event years occurred after this transition, indicating intensified compound hot–drought risk in recent decades. Event‐scale analyses identify 1997, 2001, and 2019 as representative major events, whose temporal evolution and spatial extent are consistent with documented drought impacts. Spatially, increasing trends are observed at most stations, and their consistency with hot‐day trends is much stronger than with drought‐day trends, suggesting a heat‐dominated intensification pathway. Causal effect network analysis reveals significant links between Shanxi compound hot–drought variability and the British–Baikal Corridor (BBC) and Silk Road Pattern (SRP) wave trains. Their coupled influence favours persistent anticyclonic anomalies, suppressed convection, and reduced precipitation over North China, providing a physically interpretable circulation pathway for major events. These findings establish an observational–impact–circulation evidence chain for attribution‐oriented diagnosis and provide a basis for future formal attribution and early warning of regional compound extremes.