Evaluation of an investment project taking into account risk and uncertainty in the system of innovation management in professional activities

The article discusses theoretical and methodological approaches to assessing the effectiveness of investment projects in conditions of stochastic uncertainty, which is typical for innovative activities. The necessity of integrating quantitative and qualitative risk analysis methods into the professional activities of managers of innovative projects is substantiated. Based on a systematic approach, a comprehensive assessment algorithm is proposed, which combines sensitivity analysis, scenario forecasting, and Monte Carlo simulation. The key features of using discounted criteria (NPV, IRR, DPP) in a turbulent external environment are identified. The results of the study can be used in the formation of a risk management system in high-tech companies.