Evaluating the impact of BRI toward greener energy and carbon neutrality

Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has primarily been studied for its economic benefits; its role in promoting greener energy transitions and carbon neutrality goals is not well explored. This study examines the effects of BRI across 90 BRI countries from 1995 to 2021 with a focus on greener energy transition and carbon neutrality. Quantile Treatment Effect (QTE) models are used to compare the effectiveness of BRI across quantile levels and groups of countries. In general, results show evidence that BRI has effectively reduced CO ₂ emissions and enhanced renewable energy consumption, with the effects being more pronounced in countries that exhibit high CO ₂ and renewable energy consumption. The developed countries and countries with high renewable energy potential and high pollution levels are most benefitted from joining BRI. The impact of BRI in the developing and low-income countries is less prominent. In summary, the BRI tends to create the most significant environmental benefits in countries that already have a relatively high level of development, allowing them to leverage new technologies and investments for further decarbonization.