Evaluating the Effects of Urban Regeneration Initiatives Through Market-Based Approaches: The Case Study of the Esquilino District in the City of Rome (Italy)

The present research investigates the relationship between urban regeneration initiatives and residential real estate market dynamics by assessing market price appreciation associated with the factors most commonly considered in housing transactions. The study focuses on the Esquilino district in the city of Rome (Italy) with particular attention to the redevelopment of Piazza dei Cinquecento, the major public space located in front of Roma Termini railway station. The intervention aims to improve urban accessibility, reduce traffic congestion, and enhance public space quality through a new spatial configuration and the creation of a tree-lined area. The objective of the study is to verify whether, and to what extent, the ongoing regeneration project has influenced residential property values. To achieve this goal, an econometric analysis is implemented to quantify the contribution of different housing and locational attributes to residential asking prices and to identify the variables that significantly affect value formation within the local market. Given that the initiative is still in progress and approaching completion, the analysis adopts a diachronic perspective by comparing two distinct temporal stages: the ante project phase (second half of 2021) and the in itinere phase (first half of 2025). Building on the findings of a previous pre-intervention study, the research systematically examines changes in market behaviors over time, with the dual purpose of identifying variations in price determinants and analyzing the associations between the current urban transformations and the residential real estate market. The results indicate a substantial stability in the main determinants of residential property prices across the two periods, suggesting that the regeneration initiative has not yet been fully capitalized into market behaviors. However, variations in the contribution and functional relationships of some spatial variables highlight preliminary signs of market adjustment during the ongoing transformation process. The study highlights the importance of monitoring for assessing how urban regeneration processes are progressively incorporated into real estate market dynamics. The proposed framework provides a transferable tool for evaluating regeneration processes in different urban contexts, supporting evidence-based decision-making and the comparative assessment of urban transformation strategies.