Evaluating the Conservation Potential of the Post-Megafire Environment of a Biodiversity Hotspot

Megafires are a growing global phenomenon, with their frequency increasing in recent decades. In 2023, Europe’s largest recorded fire occurred in North-Eastern Greece, burning 94,250 hectares, including the Dadia–Lefkimi–Soufli National Park (DLS-NP). This protected area is of high ecological importance due to its rich biodiversity, hosting 18–20 breeding raptor species. The fire exhibited remarkable spatial heterogeneity, with some patches burning at low to moderate severity while others remained unburned, likely functioning as critical post-fire refugia. In this study, 15 environmental variables were analyzed using Maxent to model pre-fire potential nesting habitat suitability for eight tree-nesting species, including seven raptors and the Black Stork. The models were then used to examine the spatial overlap between historically suitable habitats and unburned, low-, and moderate-severity areas. The results suggest that these patches may represent important spatial remnants of potential nesting habitat for raptor communities after the fire, especially where historically suitable areas coincide with unburned or moderately burned forest structures. Accordingly, post-fire landscape management in Evros should prioritize the protection of unburned refugia and the cautious retention of partially burned forest structures, particularly in areas identified as historically suitable, while avoiding interventions that may unnecessarily simplify habitat structure. Effective management should combine species-specific protection of key habitat islands with landscape-scale strategies that preserve heterogeneity and support prey availability, within an adaptive framework guided by systematic monitoring over the next 3–5 years.