Evaluating the Abraham Accords: Creating Indicators and Scenarios for Its Future

The Abraham Accords facilitate the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between Israel and several regional states. This article proposes a framework for evaluating the progress and sustainability of the resulting relationships, moving beyond assessments that rely primarily on political milestones or aggregate economic data. The framework identifies seven metrics: relationship maturity and reciprocity, ecosystem integration and co-development, resilience and continuity during conflict, economic and business impact, narrative shift and public perception, institutionalization and policy alignment, and inclusivity and regional spillover. These metrics are situated within the relevant scholarly literature and applied through a case study of the United Arab Emirates, which also examines the role of public opinion in shaping the Accords’ legitimacy. The analysis finds that while the Accords have produced measurable gains in trade, tourism, and defense cooperation, they continue to face significant obstacles, including leadership distrust, hostile political rhetoric, failed investment deals, and persistently negative public sentiment across Arab societies. The article concludes with forward-looking scenarios and recommendations for strengthening the normalization architecture.