Evaluating Critical Success Factors of Green Entrepreneurship in Circular Supply Chains: A Scenario-Based Analysis

Green entrepreneurship (GE) has become one of the primary driving forces of circular supply chain management (CSCM), especially in resource-intensive sectors that aim to pursue sustainability and net-zero goals. Although previous research has defined critical success factors (CSFs) that support GE and circular practices, the relative importance of CSFs in sustainability-orientated decisions considering uncertain future events in dynamic environments has not been investigated. To address this issue, this article proposes a stratified α-cut fuzzy Full Consistency Method (FUCOM), with the integration of scenario-based decision-making for assessing CSFs of GE considering uncertain future conditions in an emerging economy. The CSFs were extracted from the literature review and refined through experts. Findings indicate that there are differences in ranking CSFs across future scenarios, suggesting that a single, forward-looking evaluation can result in poor strategic choices. Nine CSFs were identified in the final evaluation framework, among which “ collaborative industry partnerships” and “ technology transfer for research and development” emerged as the most critical amid future uncertainty. This study contributes to the literature by integrating a stratified α-cut fuzzy FUCOM with scenario-based decision-making to evaluate the dynamic prioritization of GE-related CSFs under uncertain future conditions. This article provides useful insights for managers and policymakers to promote resilience and sustainability of circular supply chains in developing economies.