Ethnodemographic development of Kazakhstan in 1989–2021

According to the 1989 census, Kazakhs, who for the most part lived in rural areas, made up only 40 % of the inhabitants of the Kazakh SSR. The majority of the population, especially in cities, was Russian. The stage of destruction of the Soviet multi-ethnic demographic system occurred in the 1990s. By the end of the decade, the ethnic composition of Kazakhstan changed significantly compared to 1989: the majority of the population was Kazakhs, whose demographic behavior was largely determined by the traditional family values they preserved, including the view on the ideal number of children. These ideas received full support from the state and became an important part of the republic’s development strategy. The concepts of “high birth rate,” “large family” were perceived as a socio-cultural property, outside the socio-economic context. High rates of natural growth were also due to the process of ethnic change in reproductively active populations. However, the demographic indicators that have developed at this stage are not a trend that can determine the situation in the long term. Currently, the potential of the ethnic change effect has actually been exhausted, the demographic dynamics are almost completely determined by the Kazakhs. It is unclear how the demographic system will operate while the society is becoming mono-ethnic. The authors believe that mono-ethnicity will quickly lead to a decrease in reproduction rates, primarily in fertility. Demographic processes are increasingly clearly determined by the generation of Kazakh youth born and socialized in the cities of Kazakhstan.