DOI: 10.32649/ajas.2026.193120 ISSN: 1992-7479

Estimating the Impact of the Parallel Exchange Rate on the Agricultural Coverage Rate: An Applied Study on the Iraqi Economy for the Period 2004-2022

S. N. Obaid, S. A. Hammad
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The study evaluated the impact of the parallel exchange rate on Iraq''s agricultural coverage rate from 2004-2022. The vector error correction model (VECM) was used to measure the relationship between the study variables. The results showed a long-term equilibrium relationship between the exchange rate and the agricultural coverage rate, with an error correction coefficient of -2.176144, meaning that about 2.17% of the shocks can be explained in the long run. This confirms the impact of the exchange rate on agricultural coverage in the short- and long-term dynamic models. The value of the parallel exchange rate relative to the agricultural coverage rate was approximately 0.052667 in the long run, meaning that a 1% increase in the exchange rate raised the agricultural coverage rate by 0.052667. The study recommends re-evaluating the exchange rate to enhance the competitiveness of local agricultural products against foreign agricultural goods and developing a strategic plan involving greater government support for the agricultural sector. Also, agricultural import substitution policies should be implemented while the investment environment should attract local and foreign investors to establish livestock and agricultural wealth projects by increasing the cash proceeds from exports to widen agricultural coverage in Iraq

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