Estimating large carnivore populations in an arid fenced reserve using spatial capture–recapture modelling

In fenced protected areas where large carnivore populations persist or have been restored through reintroduction, population monitoring is essential to inform management. Robust density estimates are particularly important given the strong influence of large carnivores on ecosystem processes, yet such data remain scarce for arid systems where restricted dispersal and low primary productivity jointly influence carnivore densities. We addressed this gap using a spatial capture–recapture (SCR) framework applied to a camera trap survey conducted in the Korannaberg section of Tswalu Kalahari Reserve (hereafter Tswalu), South Africa. Using SCR modelling, we estimated leopard Panthera pardus density at 0.18/100 km ² (± SE 0.09), among the lowest reported for a fenced protected area, likely reflecting the combined effects of early‐stage population recolonisation and low prey biomass characteristic of the southern Kalahari, with detections at only 21.18% of camera stations. Brown hyaena Parahyaena brunnea density was estimated at 2.68/100 km ² (± SE 0.45), exceeding densities from mesic systems. Spotted hyaena Crocuta crocuta density was 0.66/100 km ² (± SE 0.25), constituting the first SCR estimate for the Northern Cape. Together, these estimates provide an important baseline for long‐term monitoring of large carnivores at Tswalu, and we advocate for repeated SCR surveys to assess population trends and inform Tswalu's carnivore management framework. More broadly, increased SCR monitoring across contrasting land‐use types and productivity gradients would improve understanding of the ecological drivers shaping large carnivore densities and support evidence‐based conservation for species currently lacking coordinated oversight.