Escalation Without Intent: A Structural Reframing for Systems Research

ABSTRACT

This research note reframes escalation as a threshold‐induced regime transition in coupled systems. Traditional escalation theory explains conflict intensification through strategic choice, misperception or organizational dynamics but generally assumes a stable decision environment. Drawing on systems theory, resilience engineering and critical transitions research, the note argues that this assumption can break down in tightly coupled, high‐uncertainty environments. Escalation can emerge when disturbance propagation outpaces a system's capacity to stabilize within available response time, even when actors behave rationally and follow established procedures. The framework introduces four interacting variables—disturbance rate, interaction density, feedback stabilization capacity and response time—to explain how systems move toward or away from critical thresholds. This perspective clarifies how locally rational actions can collectively produce destabilizing outcomes and distinguishes ordinary instability within a controlled regime from structural regime transition. The note outlines implications for analysis and practice, suggesting that escalation risk depends not only on actor behaviour but also on the underlying system conditions that shape the limits of control.