Epidemiological and Epizootological Monitoring and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Plague in Natural Foci of Kazakhstan

Plague remains a significant natural focal zoonotic infection with continuing epidemiological relevance in the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study provides a comprehensive assessment of epizootological dynamics in natural plague foci during 2020–2025 through the integration of historical epidemiological data, phenotypic and molecular characterization of Yersinia pestis, and GIS-based spatial analysis. The study utilized long-term surveillance data (1920–2025), epidemiological records of human plague cases (1926–2003), phenotypic analysis of 1526 strains, and whole-genome sequencing of 75 representative isolates. Epizootological monitoring demonstrated high surveillance coverage and stable monitoring capacity, together with a marked increase in the application of molecular diagnostic methods. By 2025, both the number and isolation rate of Y. pestis strains increased substantially, while the epizootically active area expanded in 2024–2025, although the overall long-term trend in active area was not statistically significant. Despite these fluctuations, Y. pestis populations remained highly stable, with 94.9% phenotypically typical and 97.5% genotypically typical strains, and no evidence of antimicrobial resistance. Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran’s I revealed significant clustering of epizootics (Moran’s I = 0.1627; z = 4.39; p < 0.001), indicating non-random spatial distribution and localized zones of increased epizootic activity. No human plague cases have been recorded since 2003 during the period of sustained epidemiological surveillance and control measures. These findings highlight the potential utility of integrating spatial modeling and molecular surveillance into risk-oriented plague monitoring and control strategies.