Environmental Risk Modeling for Heavy Rainfall Events in Jeddah City Between the years (2000-2025)

This study models the potential environmental risks associated with heavy rainfall events that affected Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between 2000 and 2025. A descriptive-analytical approach based on Geographic Information Systems (GIS) was employed to analyze spatial patterns of rainfall and assess their environmental implications. The methodology included a literature review, collection of daily rainfall data, identification of extreme rainfall events, and spatial analysis of rainfall distribution across the city. A suitability model was then developed to determine areas most vulnerable to heavy rainfall hazards. Results indicate that heavy rainfall events and their environmental impacts on residents and property correspond to 70.37% of the total distribution of such events in Jeddah. Environmental risk levels ranged from 20% in areas with very low vulnerability to 93.2% in those with extremely high vulnerability. Areas classified as having very low risks (less than 35%) are located in the northwest and southwest, covering 475.58 km2 (20.13% of the city's area). Low- to moderate-risk areas (35-65%) are concentrated in the northeast, south, and southeast, covering 925.75 km2 (39.18%). High-risk areas (65-80%) are mainly in central Jeddah, covering 751.9 km2 (31.83%), while the eastern sector exhibits the most severe risk levels, exceeding 80% of the total risk exposure. The study highlights the importance of GIS-based modeling in identifying spatial patterns of environmental risks and supporting urban planning and disaster management in Jeddah.