Environmental Contours and Energy-Yield Assessment for Offshore Wind Farm Development in the Thracian Sea

The deployment of offshore wind farms (OWFs) has increased impressively over the last decade. While a group of frontrunner countries has led early deployment, the offshore wind sector is expanding to new regions; the Thracian Sea represents a promising area for OWFs deployment due to its favorable wind and wave climate. The successful implementation of OWFs projects depends on a comprehensive understanding of local environmental conditions, with particular emphasis on complex wind–wave interactions quantification, as well as on robust and representative power performance evaluation. In the present paper, hourly environmental data spanning 29 years (1993–2021), including wind and wave parameters, are utilized to quantify joint probability distributions at selected four locations in the Thracian Sea. Corresponding environmental contours are derived and presented using a probabilistic model for given return period. The joint probability distributions of wind and wave conditions are estimated and the environmental contour surfaces for 50- and 100-year return periods are calculated and presented for generic use. Furthermore, the power production of an OWF comprising nine IEA 15 MW turbine units arranged in an orthogonal grid layout is assessed through a numerical model developed in an open access computational tool. The model accounts for key physical processes influencing OWF capacity performance, including wake interactions, atmospheric conditions, turbine control strategies, and layout effects. The results indicate a substantial value of annual energy production and capacity factor for different zones within Thracian Sea achieving a value of 526 GWh and 44%, respectively. The presented results provide practical guidance for OWFs development in the Thracian Sea and contributes to reducing uncertainty in early-stage project planning and future engineering studies.