Environmental and Supply Chain Costs of Scale: A Scenario-Based Estimation Framework for E-Waste, Energy Use, and Pollution from K-12 One-to-One Computing Initiatives

Background: Large-scale one-to-one computing initiatives in K-12 education generate supply chain and environmental impacts that are rarely quantified before procurement decisions are made. Methods: This study applies a scenario-based environmental estimation approach, informed by supply chain management principles, to model manufacturing inputs, operational energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and end-of-life electronic waste for a representative U.S. school district deploying approximately 32,492 laptops across a standard 3-year replacement cycle, using publicly available lifecycle and energy data rather than proprietary manufacturer figures. Results: Manufacturing the device fleet is estimated to require approximately 48.7 million kg of water and 7.8 million kg of fossil fuels. In-service operation generates approximately 711,575 kWh of annual electricity demand and approximately 264 metric tons of CO2 emissions from device charging. One replacement cycle is estimated to generate approximately 55.3 metric tons of mixed-material e-waste, accumulating to approximately 165.8 metric tons across three cycles (9 years). Conclusions: Large-scale device procurement carries predictable environmental costs across the device lifecycle. The study contributes a replicable estimation framework that institutional decision-makers can use to incorporate these costs into procurement planning for similarly scaled K-12 public sector districts; further validation is needed before extending the findings to nonprofit or private-sector contexts.