Entrepreneurial Ecosystem Conditions and Sustainable Value Creation: Predictive Evidence From Knowledge‐Intensive Ventures in São Paulo, Brazil

ABSTRACT

Entrepreneurial ecosystems (EEs) are systems shaping innovation and sustainable development, yet limited evidence exists on the relative predictive contribution of their components to sustainable value creation. This study examines associations between six EE dimensions and environmental, social and economic value creation among 245 knowledge‐intensive ventures supported by the PIPE programme of the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), Brazil. Using cross‐sectional, self‐reported survey data, composite indices were constructed through the CRITIC method and analysed with machine‐learning models, Monte Carlo repeated holdout validation and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Regression performance was modest, and classification performance was moderate. Within the selected predictors and this sample, cultural conditions showed the highest mean absolute SHAP importance across all outcomes, whereas the remaining dimensions varied. These results provide context‐bound predictive evidence, not causal inference or a universal hierarchy. The study contributes an interpretable framework for comparing ecosystem dimensions in a specific Brazilian regional and institutional setting.