Ensemble Modeling Reveals Severe Contraction of Dhole's ( Cuon alpinus Pallas, 1811) Suitable Habitat and Future Climate Refugia Across China

ABSTRACT

Climate change not only poses a global biodiversity conservation challenge but also significantly reshapes wildlife habitat distributions. The dhole ( Cuon alpinus Pallas, 1811), a top predator within the mammalian order Carnivora, is classified as Endangered (EN) on the IUCN Red List and designated as a National Class I Protected Wildlife Species in China. This study analyzed past, current, and future suitable habitat dynamics for dholes in China using ensemble species distribution modeling, integrating occurrence records, and climate change projections. Our analysis revealed that the top three important variables were the min temperature of coldest month, elevation, and slope in the past period; however, isothermality, elevation, and slope in the current period. The current suitable habitat area for dholes in China is estimated to be 1,434,750 km ² , primarily distributed around the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, China. Suitable habitat for dholes spanned mainly western, southern, and central China in the past. Overall, suitable habitat area declined by 47.59% between the past and current periods in China. This significant range contraction appears to be driven by a complex interplay of climatic and topographic factors. Under the climate change scenarios, a decline of 12.04%–13.12% in dhole suitable habitat is projected in China. The identified core area of future refugia were placed in the Kunlun‐Altun Mountains, Danghenan Mountains, Qilian Mountains, southeastern Tibet, and Hengduan Mountains. Despite conservation advancements, significant habitat deficits persist, necessitating urgent expansion of the protected area network and evidence‐based adaptive management in core zones. These results highlight the pressures of climate change on dhole persistence in China, emphasizing the need for spatially explicit, climate‐adaptive conservation strategies.