Ensemble Learning-Based Impact-Load Severity Appraisal for Offshore Wind Cables Exposed to Submarine Landslide Flows
Yu Bai, Jianqiang Liu, Longzhi Han, Chenglin Cao, Shuhua Bian, Xiangcheng HuangOffshore wind power cables may experience drag and lift loading where submarine landslides or related density flows cross a cable corridor. To prioritise conditions for detailed analysis, a leakage-controlled ensemble-learning workflow was developed from multi-source submarine landslide–pipeline/cable impact data and evaluated by source-grouped cross-validation. Separately predicted peak drag and peak lift were converted to empirical percentile ranks and averaged to form a dataset-relative peak-load severity index. The resulting Low–Extreme categories achieved accuracy of 0.748, macro F1 of 0.690 and High/Extreme recall of 0.758; binary High/Extreme identification achieved accuracy of 0.903, F1 of 0.800 and ROC-AUC of 0.947. Missingness analyses gave four-category accuracy of 0.717–0.771 across full, low-missingness and complete-case settings, whereas weight and threshold changes showed that category boundaries remain calibration choices rather than universal limits. Scenario and feature-group results indicate combined associations with hydrodynamic forcing, cable geometry, rheology and exposure/cover conditions. The output is intended to rank candidate conditions for computational fluid dynamics, physical modelling or structural verification. It is not a design load, a code check or a full risk estimate, which would additionally require occurrence probability, cable vulnerability, consequence and project-specific validation.