Enhancing Cross-Border E-Commerce Supply Chain Operational Performance Under Geopolitical Uncertainty: A Theoretical Exploration of Critical Success Factors

Profound transformations in the global political-economic landscape, coupled with rapid digital technology development, have fueled the growth of cross-border e-commerce (CBEC). Yet these same forces have simultaneously plunged CBEC into a strategic dilemma: how to address challenges in supply chain operational performance. Existing research, which often relies on single theoretical perspectives, struggles to systematically explain the decision-making logic of cross-border enterprises under multiple constraints. This paper constructs a four-dimensional integrated analysis framework and employs the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method to identify a causal network comprising 16 critical success factors across four levels, i.e., external environment, organizational capability, network resources, and decision-making psychology. The DEMATEL results suggest that the CBEC supply chain performance enhancement dilemma may be associated with the complex interplay among technological disruption, institutional pressures, and cognitive biases. Within the expert-evaluated system, digital platform empowerment, environmental uncertainty, and managerial global mindset emerged as highly influential factors. The expert-based DEMATEL analysis further suggests three major influence pathways among the identified factors, providing an exploratory understanding of how experts perceive the interactions underlying the supply chain operational performance dilemma. Based on these findings, this paper proposes a series of solutions and policy recommendations centered on digital capability building and dynamic capability cultivation, aiming to assist CBEC in optimizing supply chain strategies and enhancing international competitiveness within highly uncertain external environments.