Energy–Logistics-Cost Nexus: Assessing LCOE Volatility, Decarbonization Barriers, and SDG 7 Alignment

The Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) is the standard metric for evaluating renewable energy project economics; however, conventional formulations inadequately represent the dynamic effects of logistics performance, supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risk, and institutional constraints on project costs. This study addresses this gap by proposing the Integrated Levelized Cost of Energy (I-LCOE), a conceptual framework designed for macro-level renewable energy planning and policy analysis. An interpretivist qualitative research design was adopted, combining a systematic literature review with twelve semi-structured interviews involving renewable energy, logistics, regulatory, and academic experts from the MENA and GCC regions. Thematic analysis identified five recurring challenges: limited knowledge management, weak integration of logistics within conventional LCOE models, fragmented sustainability metrics, stakeholder coordination inefficiencies, and reliance on tacit knowledge. The findings indicate that transportation delays, customs bottlenecks, infrastructure limitations, and geopolitical disruptions generate dynamic risk premiums that are insufficiently reflected in existing macro-level cost assessment approaches. In response, the study develops the four-layer I-LCOE framework, supported by an operational proxy variable mapping framework, a comparative assessment against established uncertainty methods, and an integrated digital knowledge management platform. The proposed framework provides a structured approach for incorporating logistics-induced uncertainty into renewable energy cost assessment, supporting more informed strategic planning, investment prioritization, and policy development aligned with Sustainable Development Goal 7 and the Paris Agreement.