Energy Intensity, Energy Structure and Carbon Dioxide Dynamics in the EU Non-Metallic Mineral Sector

Decarbonization of non-metallic mineral manufacturing requires reductions in energy use relative to output alongside changes in fuel use and production processes. This study examines associations between energy intensity, energy structure, and production-based CO2 intensity in the EU non-metallic mineral sector (NACE C23). A balanced panel of 19 Member States (2008–2023) is analyzed using static and dynamic two-way fixed-effects models complemented by additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition. Energy intensity is positively associated with CO2 intensity in the fixed-effects specifications, whereas relationships with electricity and fossil-fuel shares are less consistent. Dynamic estimates suggest positive CO2-intensity persistence, but its magnitude is sensitive to estimator choice. Across annual country-level transitions, the LMDI energy-intensity effect has the largest average downward contribution to changes in absolute CO2 emissions (−267.75 kt), followed by the fossil-fuel-share effect (−117.24 kt). Subperiod analysis reveals temporal heterogeneity: fossil-fuel share contributed more strongly in 2008–2014, whereas energy intensity dominated in 2015–2019 and 2020–2023. These findings distinguish energy-intensity adjustment from energy-carrier substitution as complementary dimensions of industrial decarbonization. Because sectoral emissions may include process-related CO2 and exclude indirect electricity emissions, the results do not establish the carbon benefits of electrification or specific technological changes.