Energy dependence of grain production as a factor of agricultural system resilience: a comparison between Russia and China

The relevance of this study lies in the fact that, in the context of highly volatile energy prices and a tightening climate agenda, the sustainability of agricultural systems is determined not only by yield and export potential, but also by the depth of their energy dependence. The aim of the study is to quantify the energy dependence of grain production in Russia and China and to identify its impact on the sustainability of agricultural systems from 2000 to 2025. The methodological framework incorporates the concept of energy intensity of agricultural production and life cycle approaches. Statistical data from FAOSTAT, the International Energy Agency, and official statistics from Russia and China on grain yields, mineral fertilizer consumption, and energy resources are used. The scientific novelty lies in the development of an integrated indicator of the energy intensity of grain production (GJ per ton of yield) with a distinction between direct and indirect energy and in the interpretation of this indicator through the category of sustainability: the sensitivity of yield and production costs to shocks in the markets for fuel, electricity, and gas used for fertilizer production. The results show that by 2025, China will achieve a record gross grain harvest (over 700 million tons) with an average yield of about 7 tons/ha. However, the specific energy intensity of grain production reaches 4.1–4.5 GJ/t, which is almost twice as high as in Russia (2.2–2.6 GJ/t). The energy consumption structure is fundamentally different: in Russia, diesel fuel dominates with moderate fertilization, while in China, over half of the energy footprint of grain is associated with mineral fertilizers and coal-fired electricity. The “zero-growth” fertilizer policy implemented in China allows for a gradual reduction in energy intensity without deteriorating yields, while the Russian model is undergoing a stage of increasing intensification. It is shown that the energy vulnerability of the Chinese model is higher, but the potential for improving energy efficiency is significant, whereas for Russia, the key challenge is associated with an increasing share of energy costs in the cost of grain while maintaining a relative advantage in energy intensity.