Energetic Constraints Reshape Climate‐Tracking Opportunities for Large Mammals Across European Protected Area Networks

ABSTRACT

Rapid climate change is reducing the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs), yet exposure metrics alone do not indicate whether species can reach suitable climates. Targeting focal large terrestrial mammal taxa, we developed a climate‐informed connectivity framework integrating climate velocity, climatic residence time, and energetics‐based functional connectivity to assess the feasibility of climate‐driven redistribution across Europe. Combining habitat resistance with normalized terrain‐related energetic costs revealed spatially heterogeneous climate‐tracking opportunities. Small PAs with short residence times warrant particular attention because they provide limited internal space for tracking baseline climatic conditions and are often embedded in landscapes with low movement potential. Our framework revealed widespread mismatches between climatic stability and connectivity across Europe's PA network, providing a spatial basis for prioritizing restoration and connectivity under climate change.