Emerging Hydroclimatic Risks in Pakistan: Regional Projections of Precipitation Characteristics Under CMIP6 Scenarios

ABSTRACT

Pakistan has experienced a marked increase in hydroclimatic extremes in recent decades, resulting in recurrent floods and droughts, the two most harmful natural hazards. As precipitation governs water availability, agriculture, livestock and forestry, understanding its changing characteristics is essential for climate adaptation. The study area is Baluchistan which was first classified into three homogeneous climate regions. In the second step, robust multi‐model ensemble data about daily precipitation by incorporating output of 8 GCMs was developed through K‐fold cross‐validation. In the third step, this study investigated the future precipitation patterns using the CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble under SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 pathways. The study examines mean monthly precipitation, monthly total precipitation, maximum monthly precipitation (maximum of daily precipitation in each month) and monthly precipitation variability (standard deviation of daily precipitation for each month). For assessing the association between precipitation characteristics and agricultural yield, Bi‐wavelet coherence analysis was applied, revealing divergent crop responses, with both positive and negative associations. Trend detection was performed using the non‐parametric Kendall Tau test. The results of projected precipitation characteristics show that region 2 consistently exhibits the highest precipitation values across characteristics except maximum monthly precipitation, whereas region 1 records the lowest. The results show that all regions are projected to experience increased monsoon (July–August) precipitation under both SSPs. Average variability is lowest in region 3, while higher variability, approaching 3.8 mm in certain months and scenarios, is projected in region 2 during mid‐century. Trend analysis reveals heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns, with both increasing and decreasing signals. These findings provide essential insights for water management, agriculture, urban planning, livestock, ecosystem stability and public health sectors.