Elevated CO ₂ mitigated warming-enhanced carbon loss from northern peatland

Peatlands store one-third of the global soil carbon (C) on only ∼3% of Earth’s land surface but risk becoming C sources to accelerate climate change due to warming-induced C loss. Elevated CO ₂ (eCO ₂ ) may mitigate this loss by boosting plant C uptake. However, how eCO ₂ and climate warming interact to influence peatland C dynamics remains unclear. Here, we investigated peatland C fate at five warming levels (+0°, +2.25°, +4.5°, +6.75°, and + 9°C), each under ambient CO ₂ (aCO ₂ ) and eCO ₂ (+500 parts per million), by model-guided synthesis of 18 measured variables for each of the 10 treatments from an experiment. Our results showed that the peatland C loss increased with warming at a rate of 62.6 g C m ⁻²  year ⁻¹ °C ⁻¹ , reaching 476.5 ± 104.7 g C m ⁻²  year ⁻¹ at +9°C under aCO ₂ , primarily because of increased Sphagnum mortality and accelerated decomposition. eCO ₂ reduced the loss rate to 17.3 g C m ⁻²  year ⁻¹ °C ⁻¹ , nearly halving the C loss at +9°C (269.4 ± 80.5 g C m ⁻²  year ⁻¹ ), mainly due to enhanced tree and shrub growth. Methane emissions increased with warming, similarly under aCO ₂ and eCO ₂ . Our findings suggest that northern peatlands likely become major C sources under climate warming, although rising atmospheric CO ₂ concentration may partially slow down the C loss. Climate-driven shifts in plant community structure, rather than peat decomposition alone, play a critical role in regulating peatland C fate and may threaten the stability of peatland ecosystem functions and services in the future.