Electrified Carbon‐Neutral Methanol Production Pathways: A Multiscale Techno‐Economic‐Environmental Assessment Based on the UK Energy System

ABSTRACT

Decarbonizing the chemical sector demands scalable conversion of CO ₂ and renewable electricity into platform chemicals such as methanol. Electrified methanol production through electrochemical CO ₂ reduction (eCO ₂ R) and green hydrogen is promising, but its system‐level techno‐economic and environmental viability remains uncertain. We develop a multiscale techno‐economic‐environmental modelling framework to compare three methanol production pathways, including two electrified low‐carbon routes and one conventional thermochemical benchmark. The framework integrates symbolic‐regression‐derived surrogate models for eCO ₂ R and water electrolysis into a system‐level mass and energy conservation model, enabling rapid and physically consistent performance evaluation across technology and process scales. Key performance indicators span technical performance, economic cost and life‐cycle environmental impact. Results indicate that a two‐step electrochemical route provides the most balanced performance, achieving competitive production costs while significantly improving CO ₂ utilization and reducing lifecycle emissions. The conventional pathway remains economically favorable under current conditions but is constrained by limited CO ₂ conversion potential. In contrast, a three‐step electrochemical route maximizes CO ₂ utilization and delivers the lowest projected global warming potential, reaching −1.2 kg CO ₂ ‐eq kg ⁻¹ methanol by 2050. These findings provide system‐level design principles for electrified carbon utilization and identify conditions under which electrochemical methanol production can outperform thermochemical routes.