Electoral Resilience in the Face of Disaster: The Impact of Hurricane Helene on the 2024 Election in North Carolina

Abstract

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? This study examines the impact of Hurricane Helene on the 2024 presidential election in North Carolina using a difference-in-differences design comparing 13 affected counties to 87 control counties across four election cycles (2012–2024). The evidence suggests that the hurricane significantly increased voter displacement – affected counties experienced approximately a six-percentage-point rise in mail ballots sent out of state and an eight-percentage-point increase in mail ballots sent outside voters’ home ZIP codes. Despite this displacement and substantial physical damage, however, turnout remained stable and voters did not alter their voting methods. These findings suggest that with proactive institutional response, voters and election administration can show resilience, even in the face of a disaster that displaced thousands of voters.