Effects of Precipitation Trends on Vegetation in the El Fuerte River Basin, Northwestern Mexico

River basins constitute a suitable natural territorial unit for the integrated management of natural resources. The El Fuerte River basin (EFRB) in northwestern Mexico is located on the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental. Its importance lies in its contribution to irrigation systems in the state of Sinaloa and to hydroelectric power generation, as well as its strong dependence on seasonal precipitation associated with the North American Monsoon (NAM). A reduction in NAM precipitation has been observed in northwestern Mexico. Using CHIRPS precipitation data and ERA5 reanalysis, we analyzed the relationship between precipitation trends and the variability of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the El Fuerte River basin for the 2000–2025 period. Land vegetation cover in EFRB is dominated by Tropical Dry Forest (TDF). The results indicate that the TDF responds directly to precipitation conditions during both the dry and wet seasons. The exceptional drought and a cold wave in 2011 disrupted NDVI values in EFRB, causing an increase in greenness during the post-disturbance recovery period associated with a shift in the basin’s vegetation composition. The decline in NAM precipitation may be linked to multiple factors, including reduced moisture transport due to weakened low-level zonal winds and changes in land vegetation cover. The effects of these changes in precipitation trends and recurrent droughts could drive further changes in vegetation structure, thereby altering the basin’s hydrological cycle.