Effects of Climate Change on Wind Power Generation: A Case Study for the German Bight

Driven by the demands of climate change mitigation, many countries have begun large-scale electricity production from variable renewables, such as solar PV and wind power. Electricity production from wind turbines, in particular, strongly depends on local weather conditions and their changes caused by climate change. Thus, for many countries with a high share of wind power generation, such as Germany, two essential questions arise: how will climate change affect electricity production, and how strong will be this impact for different RCPs? To better assess the impact on existing onshore wind turbines, spatially and temporally resolved data on their power generation are required. In order to create such disaggregated data, this study uses a physical simulation model and climate data modified for the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 scenarios. To investigate the effects on a significant region with very high wind power generation in Germany, the numerical simulations were carried out on an ensemble of 22 onshore wind turbines with an installed capacity of 65.5 MW in the German Bight. After model validation, the power generation from this turbine ensemble was simulated for the high-wind year 2008 and the low-wind year 2010. The simulation results are presented with a high temporal resolution, and the observed changes are discussed for the applied RCPs. In summary, the resulting wind power generation of the entire plant ensemble decreases with increasing RCP to values of up to nearly 3 GWh for both years.