Educational stratification and political interest: Longitudinal evidence on track effects and social selectivity in Germany

This study examines whether changing educational tracks at the transition to upper secondary school affects the development of political interest among German adolescents. Using 5 years of panel data from the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS; N  = 1578), we distinguish between academic tracks leading to higher education entrance qualifications and non-academic tracks leading to vocational qualifications. Linear panel models show that students in academic tracks display higher political interest and more favorable trajectories than those in non-academic tracks. However, these differences are fully explained by entry selection factors, especially prior political interest, cognitive competences, and social background, measured before the transition. Track changes, whether upward or downward, have no significant effect during upper secondary education. A small increase in political interest is observed among upward movers only after leaving school. This indicates education may influence political interest via status. The findings challenge earlier research suggesting direct track effects and compensatory benefits for less privileged students. Results underscore the importance of political socialization during lower secondary education and raise concerns about the ability of stratified school systems to provide equal opportunities for political learning, with implications for democratic resilience.