Economic Conditions and Incarceration in the United States: Evidence from Missouri, 1850–1930

This paper investigates the relationship between economic conditions and incarceration in the postbellum United States. Leveraging unique administrative prison records in Missouri from 1850 to 1931 and the differential exposure to national agricultural price changes across counties, I find that positive economic shocks reduce prison admission rates for all crime categories, and negative shocks increase prison admission rates, with the relationship being larger for negative shocks. Although racial disparities in incarceration emerged after Reconstruction, with Black prison admission rates five times higher than white rates, I find no evidence that economic conditions affected prison admission rates differently across racial groups.