Dynamic Techno-Economic and Environmental Analysis of Biofuel, Powerfuel, and Hybrid Sustainable Aviation Fuel Pathways

Abstract

Decarbonising aviation demands scalable, cost-effective sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) solutions to meet 2050 net-zero targets. This study aims to evaluate the comparative performance and longer-term implications of key mature and emerging SAF pathways under real world conditions. Herein, we present a dynamic techno-economic and environmental modeling framework to assess SAF technologies and feedstock sources belonging to biomass-to-liquid (BTL), power-to-liquid (PTL), and hybrid power-and-biomass-to-liquid (PBTL) routes, under harmonized assumptions. The framework simulates dynamic integrated operation using time series renewable intermittency and feedstock availability profiles to evaluate technical, economic and environmental performance of SAF pathways. Based on the 11 technology pathways and 21 feedstock sources modeled, we present a snapshot of comparative performance and discuss the trade-offs across operational, economic, and environmental metrics, featuring levelized cost of fuel, cost of carbon abated, emission intensity, and carbon efficiency. Consistent with previous studies, hybrid PBTL Fischer–Tropsch (HyFT) achieved significant improvements in emission intensity and carbon efficiency compared to BTL and PTL equivalents, but is also shown here to exhibit a cost advantage per unit of carbon abatement. Configuration analysis of pathway design and intermittency management features mapped the trade-offs between fuel plant productivity, levelized cost of product, and emission intensity, and identified design low-cost, high reliability design ranges for different SAF pathways. Finally, a scenario analysis examined the impact of different pathways on 2050 decarbonisation goals under constrained biomass availability, finding 94% abatement of business-as-usual aviation emissions for HyFT, compared to just 56% under traditional BTL routes. These findings equip policy makers and project developers with tools and insights to prioritize and accelerate high impact SAF routes toward net-zero aviation.