Dynamic Prioritization of BLEVE Prevention and Tank-Origin Exposure for Sustainable and Resilient LPG Storage and Distribution Stations: A CTMC–Monte Carlo Screening Framework

Safe and resilient operation of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage and distribution stations is important to the sustainability of fuel infrastructure, yet boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) prevention requires time-dependent barrier analysis and a clear separation between prevention priorities and post-rupture exposure. This study develops a dynamic–spatial screening framework that integrates evidence-graded basic events, a priority-AND dynamic fault tree, a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC), memory-efficient Monte Carlo trajectory simulation, modeled-area prevention prioritization, and tank-origin relative-exposure screening. A one-million-trajectory accelerated numerical baseline produced 112,693 BLEVE-conditioned trajectories. Weld cracking and fire-pump failure had the highest dynamic criticality because they act in later barrier-degradation stages, whereas high-wind spread had the greatest conditional involvement. Tank structure had the highest modeled-area prevention priority. Receiver rankings depended on the assumed layout: P5 ranked first under the baseline schematic coordinates, whereas P2 ranked first under the illustrative metric-coordinate scenario across the tested distance-attenuation kernels. Convergence, acceleration-factor, evidence-grade, weight, recovery, alternative-path, static-importance, coordinate, and kernel sensitivities were evaluated. Prevention-priority scores and normalized exposure indices are reported separately and are not interpreted as calibrated accident frequency, physical dose, expected loss, or quantitative risk. By supporting targeted inspection, maintenance, monitoring, and emergency-resource allocation, the framework can contribute to safer, more resilient, and more sustainable operation of LPG infrastructure.