Dynamic Prediction of Maize Tasseling Stage Based on UAV LiDAR Time-Series Plant Height Growth Curves: A Framework Coupling UAV-CHM-POI

Accurate identification and effective prediction of the maize tasseling stage are of great significance for guiding precision field management and ensuring stable crop yields. Conventional manual observation methods suffer from high labor intensity, poor timeliness, and strong subjectivity. In this study, based on an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) remote sensing platform, LiDAR point cloud data and RGB imagery were simultaneously acquired to construct digital surface models (DSMs) and digital terrain models (DTMs). Multi-dimensional statistical features were extracted to establish a high-precision plant height estimation method applicable to the entire growth cycle of maize. On this basis, the Logistic growth curve function was introduced to fit the dynamic changes in plant height, enabling the identification and early prediction of the maize tasseling stage based on the plant height growth curve. The research results indicate the following: (1) For maize plant height estimation, the LiDAR sensor outperforms RGB. The optimal accuracy is achieved by combining the 99th percentile of DSM with the minimum DTM, yielding a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.17 m. (2) Based on the high-accuracy plant height time series, the point of inflection (POI) achieves the highest accuracy in tasseling stage identification, with an RMSE of 2.586 d under the reconstructed time series. (3) Prediction accuracy of the tasseling stage improves with increasing plant height threshold, and optimal performance is observed when the threshold is ≥1.6 m with a growth rate between 0.11 and 0.13. This study establishes a technical framework of “time-series perception–dynamic simulation–feature identification–early prediction”, providing a scientific basis for automated monitoring and precision management of the maize tasseling stage. It holds significant theoretical and practical value for the advancement of smart agriculture and crop phenotyping research.